Culture of Political Fear in Jordan

The Center for the Strategic Studies in the University of Jordan has released its annual poll on "state of democracy". The annual poll is a good indicator for the advancement, or retreat of democracy in the country as expressed by samples from "public opinion leaders" and "national sample" representing citizens.

In this year's poll the main message was that people in Jordan still think democracy did not advance. This result is based in scientific and statistical facts. It is funny, however to know that the leading daily Arab newspaper in Jordan (Al Rai) thought that democracy is in a good state.

For any quick review of the poll (you can receive an arabic copy from me by e-mail) one needs to anlyze five major indicators that might represent a general and comprehensive overview of the poll.

1- The poll uses a one-figure indicator for the state of democracy called perceptions of democratic reform. This figure in 2006 was 6.34 (from 10.0) with a slight increase (not statistically significant) from 6.29 in 2005. However, this figure has been rising since 1993.

2- The definition of democarcy: almost 65% of Jordanians define democracy as "civic and political liberties" which is the most common definition in the world. Around 25% think democracy is justice and equity while 10% focus on economic and human development.

3- Is the Jordanian "political system" democratic?: Well the Arabic version of the poll uses the arabic term "nizam siyasi" without defining whetehr it means the "political system" or "political regime". However, 51% think the Jordanian "political system" is democratic. The poll provided the respondents with a question to choose the better political system between the democratic, the authoritative and the technocrateic system and a big majority (89%) preferred a democratic system. I wonder what will the result be if the poll included another option of "Islamic system"?

4- How many are afraid? one of the most crucial indicators of the poll. It asks how many people are afraid of criticing the government in public and participating in political activism (joining a party, demonstrating, writing articles, etc..) and the result was a staggering 74.6% who cannot criticise the governemnt in public due to fear from detention, unemployment and threats to family members. In the same context, 78.5% said they will not be political activists due to the same fear.

5- So, what is hindering democracy?: The survey revealed that 37.3 per cent of respondents believe that “regional instability” was hindering democracy in Jordan, with around 2.5 per cent blaming the continuing instability in Iraq, which respondents said was the least democratic country. In terms of domestic issues posing obstacles to reform, corruption, favouritism and nepotism topped the list with 12.7 per cent, followed by fear of the Islamists taking control of Parliament and the prevalence of a tribal system.

The poll is another reference stating clearly that Jordanian democracy is in juvenile state and there are still many obstacles to be defeated. I guess the most striking and disappointing statistic is the culture of fear. I think this indicator is a true reflection and is highly justified. Until now, the security mentality is causing democracy and freedoms to remain nascent, with harmful side effects including fundamentalism and terrorism.